Outlook: Investors are still not pricing in enough risks in emerging markets from the fallout of a new US-China trade war, writes Manik Narain of UBS. We have a busy day ahead with data releases and Wall Street earnings:

While there's no guarantee the stock market will crash in 2025 under President Donald Trump, history suggests it's a practical lock that the major indexes will generate a healthy total return for investors over the next 20 years.

The S&P 500 index SPX is clinging to a gain of just 0.8% since Election Day on Nov. 5, threatening to erase the “Trump bump” investors attributed to Donald Trump’s victory. The performance is on track to be the weakest Election Day-to-Inauguration Day run since the run-up to Barack Obama’s inauguration in 2009 amid a global financial crisis.

U.S. stocks looked set to rise on Tuesday as the market chose to focus on the positives from a report saying Donald Trump may take a more restrained approach to raising tariffs. The President-elect’s